Economic Survey 2025-26: India’s ‘Goldilocks’ Economy

NEW DELHI – Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26 in Parliament today, January 30, 2026. The document paints a picture of a "Goldilocks" economy—one that is neither too hot to trigger runaway inflation nor too cold to stall growth.

With a projected real GDP growth of 6.8% to 7.2% for FY27, the Survey confirms that India remains the fastest-growing major economy for the fourth consecutive year, even as the global landscape becomes increasingly "fragmented and fragile."

Macroeconomic Snapshot

The Survey highlights a rare alignment of high growth and historically low inflation, providing a stable launchpad for the upcoming Union Budget.

• FY26 Growth (Estimated): 7.4% (First Advance Estimates).
• FY27 Growth (Projected): 6.8% – 7.2%.
• Potential Growth: Revised upward to 7% (from 6.5%).
• Inflation: Averaged a decade-low 1.7% (April–December 2025).

Foreign Exchange: A record $701.4 billion (as of Jan 16, 2026), covering 11 months of imports.

Strategic Shift: From 'Swadeshi' to 'Strategic Indispensability'

A major theme this year is India’s transition from mere self-reliance to becoming a systemically vital player in global supply chains.

• Manufacturing Power: High-tech activities now account for 46.3% of India's total manufacturing value added.
• Export Record: Total exports (merchandise and services) reached a record $825.3 billion in FY25.
• The "Orange Economy": The Survey identifies the creative economy—including digital content and concerts—as a new frontier for services growth.

Fiscal Health and the Banking "Twin Balance Sheet" Advantage

The "Twin Balance Sheet" problem of the last decade has officially transformed into a "Twin Balance Sheet Advantage," with both banks and corporates showing unprecedented strength.

Sectoral Highlights

• Agriculture: Estimated to grow at 3.1% in FY26. For the first time, Horticulture (362 MT) has significantly surpassed foodgrain production.
• Services: The dominant engine, growing at 9.3% in H1 FY26, now makes up 56.4% of GVA.
• Employment: The unemployment rate declined to 4.8% (Dec 2025), with a significant rise in female labor force participation to 41.7%.

Roadmap to ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’

The Survey outlines a 20-year marathon toward becoming a developed nation. It emphasizes:

• Sovereign AI: Building application-driven AI systems rather than just capital-intensive models.
• Nuclear Mission: A ₹20,000 crore allocation to jumpstart a 100 GW nuclear capacity target.
• Deregulation: A "Reform Express" focusing on 23 priority areas for state-level compliance reduction.